State-by-State Impact of the 2025 Tariffs

The newly implemented 2025 U.S. tariffs are poised to raise consumer prices across the board. But the impact will not be evenly felt in every state. Differences in import reliance, the mix of goods each state consumes, and local spending patterns mean some states’ residents will shoulder significantly higher costs.

Below we conduct an in-depth analysis of which states are expected to see the highest total consumer costs from these tariffs, and how those costs break down by category (electronics, furniture, textiles, vehicles, etc.).

Top States by Total Tariff Impact in 2025

Not surprisingly, larger states with big consumer markets and heavy reliance on imports will see the highest total dollar impact from the tariffs.

California – #1 hardest hit: As the nation’s largest state economy and a major import gateway, California is projected to pay the most in tariffs. Analysis suggests California consumers and businesses will face around $139 billion in extra costs in 2025 due to the new tariffs​.

This massive figure stems from California’s huge volume of imported goods (from electronics and appliances to apparel and furniture) and its large population of consumers.

In fact, California alone accounts for a sizable share of U.S. imports. So when tariffs drive up import prices, California’s total cost surges to the top of the list​.

Texas – #2 on the hook: Texas is the second-hardest hit state, with an estimated $60–70 billion in tariff costs expected in 2025​. Texas’s large population and robust economy (the second largest state GDP) mean Texans buy a lot of imported goods. Everything from vehicles to furniture to electronics.

Moreover, Texas is heavily involved in trade (especially with Mexico and China), so these tariffs will ripple through the Texas consumer market. One trade analysis found that Texas’s annual tariff bill could jump from about $7 billion to over $60 billion under the new tariff regime​.

Florida: With its large population and tourism-fueled consumer base, Florida is likely next in line. While exact projections vary, Florida’s total tariff hit is expected to be on the order of tens of billions of dollars (likely in the $20–40 billion range).

The state relies heavily on imported consumer goods, from apparel and electronics sold in Miami and Orlando malls to furniture for its booming housing market.

Floridians also tend to have significant spending in categories like furniture and home goods (thanks to a high rate of in-migration and new households), so tariffs on those items will disproportionately affect Florida wallets.

New York: As a high-income state with a dense consumer market, New York will also shoulder a large share of tariff costs (roughly in the same $20–40 billion range as Florida, by estimates). New York City’s retail sector is enormous – much of the clothing, accessories, and electronics sold in NY are imported and now subject to tariffs.

Furthemore, New York is a major entry point for imported goods (via the Port of New York/New Jersey), so many products that New Yorkers buy will see tariff-induced price hikes.

Illinois: As a Midwestern economic hub with nearly 13 million residents, Illinois is another state with a high total tariff exposure. From Chicago’s retail stores to factories that source parts from abroad, Illinois will likely see on the order of ~$15–25 billion in added costs passed to consumers.

Chicagoans buying imported appliances or clothing will pay more, and even the price of a new car in Illinois could rise noticeably. Illinois’s central location also means many imported goods flowing to other Midwest states pass through here, concentrating some tariff costs in the state.

Other states with significant tariff costs include Pennsylvania, Georgia, New Jersey, Ohio, and Michigan, all of which have large populations and/or import-intensive industries. Each of these states will probably see total consumer cost increases in the tens of billions of dollars.

For example, Georgia (with the Port of Savannah and a big logistics sector) imports a lot of furniture, apparel, and electronics for the Southeastern U.S., so Georgia consumers will pay more for those items.

Pennsylvania and New Jersey similarly have broad consumer bases that will feel tariff impacts at the checkout counter (from Philadelphia’s shopping centers to New Jersey’s appliance and auto dealerships).

It’s important to note that even smaller states will experience higher costs, just on a smaller absolute scale.

So no state is “escaping” the tariffs entirely. In fact, analysts project tariff-related price hikes in all 50 states, even if the total dollar impact in a Wyoming or Vermont is under $1 billion. In effect, the tariffs act like a nationwide tax, but one that hits some states much harder in total due to their size and import profiles​.

Import Reliance and Regional Exposure

Why do some states get hit harder than others? A key factor is import reliance – the degree to which a state’s economy and consumers depend on imported goods. States that import a larger share of what they consume will naturally face higher costs from import tariffs.

According to a Tax Policy Center study, imports make up the largest share of state GDP in parts of the Midwest and South, meaning tariffs in those regions pack an especially strong punch​.

In fact, the TPC found that tariff payments would exceed 2% of GDP in 20 states under the 2025 tariff plan, with states like Kentucky, Indiana, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Michigan seeing the biggest burden relative to their economies​.

These states have economies that are deeply intertwined with trade – for instance, Kentucky’s economy could see tariff costs rise by over 4% of its GDP, the highest jump of any state​. Indiana and Tennessee were close behind with around a 3.5–3.9 percentage point increase as a share of GDP​.

Many of these high-import states are in the Midwest/South (the nation’s manufacturing belt), which helps explain some politics around tariffs and why Midwestern wallets may be hit harder than coastal cities on a relative basis.

By contrast, states that are more service-oriented or self-sufficient in certain goods might see a smaller percentage impact.

For example, coastal states like California and New York, while paying huge totals in tariffs, also have very large GDPs. So as a share of GDP their tariff hit might be a bit lower than in smaller import-reliant states.

(California’s $139 billion in tariffs is enormous in absolute terms, but California’s economy is so large that this might be a couple percent of state GDP; Kentucky’s smaller economy paying, say, $8–10 billion in tariffs could be a larger percent of its GDP.)

This dynamic supports a narrative that tariffs are squeezing “Main Street” in Middle America relatively more than the cosmopolitan coasts – a story angle local journalists in those heartland states might run with.

Tariff Impacts by Consumer Category

Another lens to identify which states will suffer most is to look at specific consumer categories facing high tariff rates, and see which states spend heavily in those categories.

The 2025 tariff package targets a wide range of consumer goods – notably electronics, furniture, textiles/apparel, and vehicles/auto parts – with tariffs anywhere from 10% up to 25% (or even higher for certain countries like China).

States where these goods make up a big slice of household spending will feel a sharper sting. Let’s break down a few key categories.

Electronics & Tech Gadgets

Tariffs on electronics (like a 10–15% duty on imported laptops, smartphones, TVs, etc.) will raise prices nationwide, but especially in states with tech-hungry consumers.

California stands out here – not only is it an entry point for many imported electronics (through West Coast ports), but it’s also home to Silicon Valley and a gadget-loving consumer base.

Californians buying new smartphones, laptops, or gaming consoles in 2025 will pay more due to tariffs. Other states with high electronics consumption include New York and Texas, thanks to their large urban populations.

Nationwide, computer and electronics equipment is one of the hardest-hit categories, with an estimated $64 billion in added costs just in the tech and media sector alone​. Consumers in tech-centric states will bear a lot of that cost.

Furniture & Home Goods

The tariffs include substantial duties on furniture (many imported from China/Vietnam), mattresses, lighting, and other home furnishings – often around 25%. States with booming housing markets and lots of new homeowners could be especially exposed to furniture tariffs.

Texas is a prime example: with rapid population growth and new housing development, Texans are big buyers of furniture and home decor (beds, sofas, appliances – much of which are imported).

Florida similarly has high demand for home goods (think all those retirees furnishing condos, or Disney-area vacation homes), so furniture retailers in Florida may pass on noticeable price hikes to consumers.

Even North Carolina, historically a furniture manufacturing hub, now imports a lot of furniture components – so Carolinians might see prices rise at furniture stores despite the state’s furniture industry heritage.

Want to see the math in action? Let’s consider that a typical imported wood bed frame that cost $500 might incur an extra $125 tariff cost if facing a 25% tariff, which the consumer will ultimately pay. Multiply that across thousands of purchases, and it becomes a hefty state-wide burden.

Textiles, Clothing and Footwear

Apparel and textiles are seeing tariff increases that could drive prices up 10% to 20% on average for many items​. This includes everyday goods like shirts, shoes, gloves, handbags, and even specialty textiles like wool and silk products.

Every state buys clothing, but those with large retail sectors or fashion industries might notice it more. New York, being a fashion capital, has huge throughput of apparel (from high-end fashion houses to discount department stores) much of it imported from China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and other countries now facing tariffs​.

The Yale Budget Lab analysis noted that all wearable apparel categories will see price hikes under the tariffs​. California (with Los Angeles as a major apparel import hub and a large casual fashion market) will also see big impacts on clothing prices.

Texas and Florida – think of all the imported Western wear or beach attire sold there – are not far behind given their large populations.

Lower-income states in the South will feel apparel tariffs keenly as well, since clothing is a necessity that makes up a larger share of spending for families there.

An insight here is that tariffs on clothing are highly regressive – “a tariff is a regressive tax because it pinches lower-income families more,” as one economist noted​.

Vehicles & Auto Parts

One of the headline-grabbing moves in 2025 was a 25% tariff on imported automobiles (effective April 3, 2025) and increased tariffs on auto parts​. This has a complex effect by state.

States like Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana have big auto manufacturing – they might benefit slightly if domestic car sales rise, but they also rely on imported parts for assembly, so costs for manufacturers go up.

For consumers, any state where a lot of people buy foreign-made cars will see price jumps. For instance, coastal states where import-brand cars (Toyota, Honda, BMW, etc.) are popular could see new car prices spike.

California, the nation’s largest auto market, has many imported vehicles on its roads – those could cost thousands more. New Jersey and New York (lots of imported luxury cars and SUVs) will also feel it.

Meanwhile, Texas – where full-size pickup trucks (mostly American-made) are king – might see less impact on the types of vehicles people buy, but still significant impact on imported SUVs and cars.

The Yale analysis predicts car and truck prices overall will rise about 13.7% due to the tariffs​, and Bank of America estimated a new vehicle could cost $3,285 more on average if automakers pass the full tariff on to consumers​.

That is a staggering figure that could hit Midwestern and Southern states, where households often own multiple cars and trucks, particularly hard.

Other Consumer Goods

The tariff lists are extensive – they also cover things like appliances (washers, refrigerators), certain foods and beverages, toys, and more. Household appliances have seen tariffs since earlier trade disputes (recall the washing machine tariffs of 2018) and new ones add to that cost.

States with a lot of home building (South, Sun Belt) will pay more for appliances and fixtures. Food and groceries are less affected overall (food tariffs are smaller, around 4–5% aggregate increase​), but specific items like coffee or seafood from certain countries could jump.

In summary, each category of goods targeted by tariffs maps onto a different regional story:

• Electronics → tech-heavy states (CA, NY, WA).
• Furniture/household → high growth states (TX, FL, GA).
• Apparel → nationwide, but especially fashion hubs (NYC, LA) and low-income regions (South) due to regressive effect.
• Autos → industrial Midwest (due to parts) and car-dependent Sun Belt (due to consumer purchases).

Others (toys, etc.) → could even single out states with big toy retailers or kids (e.g., South Dakota which in 2023 had the nation’s highest birth rate).

As the map above illustrates, this tariff impact is truly nationwide – but with a clear skew toward big importing states. The West Coast and industrial Midwest show dark colors indicating high tariff costs, as do large states in the South and Northeast.

For example, one can see Florida and New York in relatively dark shades (signifying tens of billions in impact), alongside export-heavy states like Michigan and Illinois.

In contrast, sparsely populated states like Wyoming or Vermont are light-colored (under $1 billion impact) simply due to their smaller consumer markets.

Visuals like this map can drive home the story for readers: no matter where you live, tariffs are likely raising your cost of living – but if you live in California or Texas, the effect is especially pronounced​.

The Consumer Cost in Dollars and Cents

From a household perspective, the tariffs act as an extra cost of living – essentially a tax on consumption. Economists estimate that the average U.S. household will lose between $1,500 and $3,800 per year in purchasing power due to the tariffs, depending on which measures are included​.

A Yale University Budget Lab analysis (led by economist Ernie Tedeschi) found that recent tariff announcements would cost households roughly $3,800 more per year, once you factor in both the direct tariffs and likely retaliatory tariffs from trading partners​.

That is a national average – in states with higher incomes or spending, the dollar amount might be a bit higher, and in lower-income states, a bit lower in absolute terms.

However, as a share of income, the burden is heaviest on lower-income families and by extension on lower-income states. Tariffs are essentially a regressive tax: they make basic goods more expensive, which eats up a larger percentage of a low earner’s paycheck than a high earner’s​.

Many Midwestern and Southern states have lower median incomes, so a $3,800 hit is enormous in those contexts.

It supports the narrative that tariffs are hitting midwestern wallets harder than coastal cities — and not because the Midwest pays more in absolute dollars (they don’t, California and Texas do), but because the cost represents a bigger slice of local incomes and spending.

A family in Mississippi or Arkansas, for instance, might drastically cut back other expenses when tariffs make their clothing, food, and school supplies more expensive, whereas a family in New Jersey might be able to absorb it more easily.

Data from the Tax Policy Center showed the bottom 20% of earners would see a 1.9% drop in after-tax income from the tariffs, versus a 1.2% drop for the top 20%, reinforcing this regressive impact​.

FAQs

Will the tariffs affect mattresses?

Yes, these tariffs can significantly impact mattress prices, particularly those imported from countries subject to trade restrictions. Manufacturers typically pass on the increased cost of importing materials and products to consumers through higher retail prices.

These price increases can vary depending on the mattress’s origin country, materials used, and the current trade policies in effect. But due to the mix of materials inside a mattress, it’s likely that most if not all of the entire market will feel the effects.

Is it safe to buy a used mattress to save money?

Purchasing used mattresses presents several health and hygiene concerns that make them generally unsafe options despite the cost savings. Used mattresses can harbor dust mites, bed bugs, bacteria, mold, and bodily fluids that are difficult to completely eliminate even with cleaning.

And used mattresses lack warranty protection and have already undergone compression and wear, meaning they won’t provide proper support for nearly as long as a new mattress would.

What is an affordable way to get a new mattress?

Several strategies can help you obtain a new, affordable mattress without compromising on quality. Consider shopping during major holiday sales (Memorial Day, Labor Day, Black Friday) when retailers offer significant discounts, or look into direct-to-consumer online mattress brands that typically offer lower prices by eliminating middleman costs.

Many manufacturers also offer budget-friendly models with fewer features but solid construction, and some retailers provide interest-free financing options that allow you to spread payments over time without additional cost.

Should I buy a new mattress sooner than later to avoid the tariff effects?

If you’re already experiencing sleep issues or discomfort with your current mattress, addressing those problems promptly by purchasing a new mattress could improve your sleep quality and overall health, which may outweigh concerns about future price increases.

Currently, mattress prices may already reflect existing tariffs, but future trade policies could potentially drive costs higher if additional tariffs are implemented or current ones increase.

If your budget allows and you anticipate needing a new mattress within the next year, buying sooner rather than later could help you avoid potential price increases.

How can I stop financial concerns from affecting my sleep?

Creating a dedicated “worry time” earlier in the day to address financial concerns can prevent these thoughts from invading your sleep schedule. This allows your mind to recognize that bedtime is reserved for rest rather than problem-solving.

Establishing a relaxing bedtime routine that distances you from financial matters—such as avoiding checking bank accounts before bed, practicing guided stretches or deep breathing exercises, and creating a sleep-conducive environment—can also significantly improve your ability to fall and stay asleep despite ongoing money worries.

Methodology: How We Measured the Impact of 2025 Tariffs by State

To understand how newly implemented U.S. tariffs affect consumers, we developed a state-by-state cost model that combines import volume, consumer spending behavior, and category-specific tariff rates. The following verified data sources were used:

1. Total Tariff Burden by State

We started by modeling the total projected cost of 2025 tariffs per state using import volume data from the U.S. Census Bureau, with assumptions validated by trade economics modeling from Trade Partnership Worldwide. States with higher volumes of imported goods—particularly electronics, apparel, vehicles, furniture, and sleep products—were found to bear the greatest total burden.

2. Tariff-Inflated Price Effects

We applied 2025 tariff rates—ranging from 10% to 25%, depending on product and country of origin—to imported goods categories that consumers regularly purchase:

• Furniture and mattresses: 25% (China, Vietnam, others)
• Textiles and bedding: 10–15%
• Electronics and sleep tech: 10%

These numbers were cross-verified using reports from CBP, USTR, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

3. Household Cost Impact

To estimate how these tariffs translate into consumer-level costs, we used Yale Budget Lab projections of an average $3,800 per U.S. household per year in lost purchasing power, then adjusted that estimate based on:

• State-by-state income levels (from BEA and BLS)
• Population size (from Census 2024 data)
• GDP as a percentage of tariff burden (from Tax Policy Center modeling)

4. Category and Regional Disparities

We analyzed how spending differs by state across high-tariff categories using Consumer Expenditure Survey data and regional consumption reports.

This helped identify disproportionate financial strain in low-income states (e.g., Mississippi, Kentucky), high-import states (e.g., California, Texas), and sectors like home goods, apparel, and sleep products.

Sources:

• U.S. Census Bureau
• CBP (Customs & Border Protection)
• USTR (Office of the U.S. Trade Representative)
• BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
• BLS (Consumer Expenditure Survey)
• Yale Budget Lab
• Trade Partnership Worldwide
• Tax Policy Center

Conclusion: Navigating the 2025 Tariff Landscape

The 2025 tariff increases represent a significant economic shift that will affect consumers across all 50 states, though with varying intensity.

While larger states like California and Texas will shoulder the highest absolute costs due to their population size and import volumes, many Midwestern and Southern states may feel a more profound relative impact as these costs represent a larger percentage of their residents’ incomes.

For individual consumers, these tariffs essentially function as a regressive tax, disproportionately affecting lower-income households who spend a greater share of their income on essential goods.

The average American household is projected to lose between $1,500 and $3,800 in annual purchasing power, a substantial hit to family budgets already stretched thin by other economic pressures.

As these tariffs continue to reshape American consumer markets, their effects will be visible in everything from electronics and furniture to clothing and vehicles.

Consumers would be wise to consider these impending price increases when making major purchase decisions, especially for durable goods like mattresses and appliances that may see significant cost jumps in the coming months.

While no one can escape these economic changes entirely, informed consumers can make strategic purchasing decisions to minimize their financial impact while navigating this new economic reality.